By: Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu
The story of the election result in Telangana is about the handsome performance of TRS in seven of the 10 districts while making foray in the remaining three districts, says the writer Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu
What seemed impossible a few years ago is now a reality. Telangana will have its own first assembly and a Chief Minister in a few days from now. While most seem to believe that the Telangana results are on expected lines, the spectacular performance of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) deserves greater analysis. A party with virtually no cadre in many districts, virtually nonexistent in the twin cities of Hyderabad was able to mobilize a large number of voters in the Telangana plank. It made inroads in areas which were hitherto completely out of reach.
Vote Share: In a multi cornered contest that was on witness in Telangana, even a few percentage points difference in vote share would mean a huge difference in the number of seats. That is what made the Congress win the 2009 elections. In 2014, things were different. TRS won a 34% of the popular vote while Congress ended up getting about 26% of the popular vote. The TDP/BJP alliance had to be content with around 22%. An 8% lead over the nearest rival means a windfall of seats in a multi cornered contests. That is what seems to have happened in Telangana. TRS won 63 while the Congress ended up at just 20. Even the TDP/BJP alliance could not go past 20 despite their revival in the twin cities. A district wise analysis reveals a much more clearer picture.
North Telangana : TRS was always perceived to be the strongest in North Telangana (Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Medak & Warangal). But this time, it was a runaway winner in the five North Telangana districts even by its own standards. The 10 seats TRS won in 2009 were all from the five districts of North Telangana. They did not have any presence in the remaining five districts of Telangana towards the South. This time around, the TRS wave was so strong in the North Telangana that the TDP/BJP was wiped out in all but one district. The TDP/BJP drew a blank in Adilabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad & Medak. In all, TRS won 44 out of the 54 seats in North Telangana while the Congress & TDP/BJP together could win only 7.
District after district, stalwarts of Congress& TDP had to bite the dust. Former cabinet ministers, senior party men were also not spared. Former ministers of the Congress including Sridhar Babu, Sudarshan Reddy, Shabbir Ali, Sunitha Laxma Reddy, Deputy CM Raja Narasimha, PCC Chief Ponnala Lakshmaiah, Former PCC chief D Srinivas were all humbled in their backyard. TRS scored a 9 out of 9 in Nizamabad, 12 out of 13 in Karimnagar, 8 out of 10 in Medak, 7 out of 10 in Adilabad and 8 out of 12 in Warangal. Interestingly. BSP won two seats in Adilabad. Congress men who did not get tickets contested on a BSP ticket and won.
Hyderabad & Rangareddy: Hyderabad & Rangareddy together account for 29 assembly seats. One of the reasons the TDP did not come to power in 2009 was its bad showing in the city. TDP was always strong in the city and outskirts primarily because of the large number of people from Seemandhra who settled in Hyderabad. It could win only 6 of the 29 seats while Congress won 14 in 2009. The TDP/BJP alliance made an impressive comeback this time around. They won 15 of the 29 seats on offer and Congress could win only 2. MIM held onto its 7 seats in Hyderabad. Another reason for TRS’s overall victory this time around is its foray into the city. It won 5 seats out of the 29 including 1 in Hyderabad and 4 in Rangareddy. TRS also stood second in many constituencies across Rangareddy and Hyderabad.
Mahbubnagar & Nalgonda: Mahbubnagar and Nalgonda together account for 26 seats. In 2009, TDP & Congress shared the honours winning 12 and 11 seats respectively. TRS had no presence in these districts. But in 2014, the situation completely changed. TDP is again wiped out here except 2 seats in Mahbubnagar. TRS won an impressive 13 of the 26 seats on offer. The performance of TRS in these two districts is the prime reason for it going over 60. The Congress held its ground winning 10 seats.
Khammam: There were 10 seats on offer in Khammam. Khammam was traditionally a stronghold of the TDP and the communist parties. TRS is very weak here. It could win one of the 10 seats this time because of Jalagam Venkat Rao. The Congress won 3 while the YSRCP won 4 seats here. TDP again suffered a setback winning only 1 of the 10 seats.
The story of the election result in Telangana is about how the handsome performance of TRS in 7 of the 10 districts while making foray in the remaining 3 districts. It could overcome the barriers of caste owing to a strong Telangana wave.
Courtesy: Metro India