By Katta Sekhar Reddy
CSDS-IBN survey findings about Andhra Pradesh seems to be based on loose facts, and far from ground reality. The survey has given vote percentages and and also seat projection. One important observation they made should be noted that 57% of respondents reserved their judgement to vote depending on Telangana decision. It means Telangana related polarization makes lot of difference.
But the big flaw in the projection of seats is that every party will gain. They predicted that Congress may lose 7% votes and still get 11-15 seats and Jagan party will get 20% vote and also may get 11-15 seats. Further surprising is TDP’s fate. They predicted fall of TDP vote from 25% to 17% and still predict that it will be getting 6-10 seats.
CSDS prediction on TRS is that it may increase its vote share from 6% to 13% and only get 5 – 9 seats. Here lies the secret of this survey’s motive and direction. TRS’s projected vote strength is calculated to total AP state. It seems to be small. If I am not wrong, seats projection also is calculated for total state. That approach definitely reduces the TRS’s numbers.
TRS is not a state party. It is limited to Telangana. AP state has already divided politically. National media and survey agencies are reluctant to recognize this simple fact. No common equation works out in any survey. If we go by votes polled in 2009 Lokh Sabha elections (16810186 votes polled in Telangana and Total votes polled in AP is 42058446). TRS vote percentage of 13 for AP Total, will be corresponding to 32.5% in Telangana.
It means TRS is going to be a major winner in Telangana. In a multi-cornered contest, where Congress, TDP, YSRCP and BJP are going to fight along with TRS, who ever crosses 30% votes sweeps Telangana across the North and South, except in few pockets.
The timing of this self-contradictory survey is really suspicious. The sample size of the survey is very small. Some observations are not supported by ground level facts.
One may suspect that if there is any plan to give a boost to some political parties, with an intention to stall Telangana. Is it a planted survey by some vested interests in AP in the guise of a national survey?
Is it a strange coincidence that the survey results are very close to some projections presented by the Chief Minister at the recent Core Committee meeting.
Having known the Seemandhra establishment’s access and lobbying power, it is only natural that we suspect that this is another such operation by them.